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The 15-Year Forecast for Aging!

Type: Feature Article
Date: Winter 2001

Countless discoveries made in the 20th Century have benefited us in ways too numerous to count - our longevity being but one of the many, with about 30 years added to our life spans since 1900.

The recent tools of regenerative medicine and stem cell biology have many believing we are on the threshold of finding cures for devastating diseases such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, heart disease, cancer and diabetes.

Countless discoveries made in the 20th Century have benefited us in ways too numerous to count - our longevity being but one of the many, with about 30 years added to our life spans since 1900.

The recent tools of regenerative medicine and stem cell biology have many believing we are on the threshold of finding cures for devastating diseases such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, heart disease, cancer and diabetes.

We are adding a new column to Living Longer And Loving It in honor of the Alliance's anniversary. A variety of experts, who have made an indelible mark on the way science is perceived and why we have come as far as we have today in the laboratories, on Capitol Hill and in the lives of millions of American families, have been asked to share what they believe the next 15 years might hold regarding breakthrough therapies.

Here's what some are saying:


Dr. Ruth Westheimer"I am not a medical doctor, but from my studies in sociology I can safely predict that to cater to the growing number of baby boomers hitting their 50's and 60's, the medical world will continue to pay more and more attention to the afflictions of seniors, and that can only be good news. After all, just look at the positive changes that Viagra is having on people's sex lives. But individuals shouldn't just sit back and wait for a miracle cure for whatever ails them, especially if those aches are of the spirit. Each of us can improve our emotional state so that we look forward to each new day instead of dreading it. To do that you must remain as active as possible. For those people who don't have a partner, they should go out in groups. They should take classes where they cannot only learn something new but meet new people. They must stimulate themselves in every way possible, because just as muscles atrophy from inactivity, so do social skills."

Dr. Ruth Westheimer
Psychosexual Therapist and Adjunct Professor at NYU


Edward Kennedy"Remarkable advances in genetics, bioengineering, computer technology and other sciences promise to make this new century 'the century of the life sciences.' The breakthroughs being made in biomedical research are bringing new hope that cures for many dread illnesses may soon be found. It is up to Congress to provide continuing increases in support for this indispensable research, so that these hopes of today can be the realities of tomorrow."

Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA)
Major force in U.S. Senate advocating progressive change in health care policies


William Haseltine"Aging is now being reconstructed as a series of treatable and preventable diseases, rather than as a single inevitable slide toward death. The new disciplines of regenerative medicine will be applied to restoring to normal healthy function, organs, tissues and cells damaged by the process of age. This new and exciting science will transform medicine, human health and society."

William Haseltine, Ph.D.
President and CEO
Human Genome Sciences, Inc.


Robert Butler "One special development within gene-based and regenerative ("spare parts") medicine - which will enrich life in the 21st Century - will be "personalized" physiologically grounded pharmacological agents that will be effective against a range of diseases without the stressing side effects."

Robert Butler, M.D.
President and CEO
International Longevity Center


Betsy McGaughey-Ross"The two most important breakthroughs, which are already happening, are gene therapy to cure or prevent the onset of disease, and stem cell therapy to replace cells damaged by trauma or disease. Both will be critically important to treating stroke and Alzheimer's, for example. Most of the developed nations, including Europe and Japan, face rapidly aging populations. The United States is the undisputed leader in medical breakthroughs to delay age-related disease and enable the elderly to live most of their lives in good health and independence. We as a nation are poised to present the world with a medical Marshall plan and rescue a graying globe."

Betsy McCaughey, Ph.D.
Hudson Institute


Caleb Finch"The genome projects will yield us many genetic markers for outcomes of aging so that we will begin to know how to optimize each individual's risk profile for cancer, diabetes, heart disease, Alzheimer's, stroke, etc. Already it is clear that each of these diseases at later ages is influenced by many separate risk factors and that only rarely is there a single major gene. That is, each person's aging risks will be different (identical twins excepted) as influenced by the unique set of genetic risk factors scattered across the 21 chromosomes, each copy randomly inherited from one or the other parent.

From this, I anticipate a hugely complex set of health decisions will be needed according to an individual's combination of genes. For example, in some women, but not in others because of their genes, estrogen replacement may lower the risk for osteoporotic fractures, but at the same time greatly increase risk of cancer. This means that preventive geriatric medicine must be planned for on an individual basis and on an individual scale that is unknown in today's HMOs. We need to plan for this, which is a great departure from recommendations for vaccination or vitamins, which can be made on a more general basis."

Caleb E. Finch, Ph.D.
University of Southern California
Ethel Percy Andrus Gerontology Center


Tom Harkin"Today is a time of great promise for medical research. The mapping of the human genome and the isolation and targeting of human embryonic stem cells have brought us to the cusp of exciting new cures and treatments. As Ranking Member of the appropriations committee that funds federal medical research, I am committed to doubling the budget of the National Institutes of Health so that we can aggressively pursue these and other promising avenues of research. I believe that this investment will help us find cures for diseases like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, cancer, diabetes and heart disease within the next 15 years."

Senator Tom Harkin (D-IA)
Ranking Democrat on U.S. Senate Committee that sets government funding of medical research


S. Robert Levine, M.D."We will recognize the true promise of the age of biology, not solely through miraculous scientific accomplishments - like unlocking the mysteries of the human genome, or curing disease by teaching stem cells to regenerate failed organs. The full benefits of medical advances will only be realized when we are able to better distribute and apply new knowledge. When we can insure that everyone who can benefit, today, from all we know today, does, and everyone can fairly expect they will benefit tomorrow from the enhancements of therapy that our ingenuity insures. Further, since our individual behavior has profound impact on our risk of illness and how well we do when challenged by chronic disease - in fact at least half of our premature mortality is related to our own behavior - in the end, regardless of what science teaches us, our future well-being will depend on individuals taking greater responsibility for their health, for learning all they can about what they can do to promote good outcomes, for understanding their options, and by collaborating with their health care providers as partners in achieving mutually defined goals."

S. Robert Levine, M.D.
Fellow, Health Policy, Progressive Policy Institute
Chairman, Clinical Affairs Advisory, Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation


George Martin"Promising new strategies for the prevention and treatment of the major diseases and disabilities of older people are almost always based upon a long history of basic science progress in unraveling fundamental mechanisms. The good news is that there have indeed been spectacular advances in such basic fields as molecular biology, population genetics, molecular genetics, experimental pathology, neuroimaging, etc. These make the goal of rational interventions more plausible, at least for certain conditions. These advances will shortly include a detailed "dictionary" of our human genes and, of equal importance, increasingly detailed information on how these genes differ among us. Research on dementias of older people provides a good example of how these advances are currently leading toward tools with considerable promise for early diagnosis, treatment and, we hope, prevention. We now know that there are several genetically distinct varieties of these dementias, in addition to Alzheimer's disease. The abnormal genes responsible for several of them have now been identified, providing molecular targets for intervention. For the case of Alzheimer's disease, there is a promising vaccine, now in clinical trials.

The bad news is that we still have only vague understandings of the underlying aging processes that set the stage for these major age-related disorders. We, therefore, should continue to provide major support for basic research on aging."

George Martin, M.D.
Professor of Pathology and Genetics, Department of Psychology
University of Washington


Julius Axelrod"The remarkable increase in our life span during the 20th Century has been due, in large part, to the contributions of basic biomedical research. This type of research has led to the introduction of novel therapeutic agents and clinical treatments. It is highly likely that the rapid advances in neurosciences, genomics, molecular biology and related sciences that occurred during the last decade will continue into the 21st Century. The advances in these basic sciences should lead to effective treatments of diseases of our aging population, such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, stroke and cancer."

Julius Axelrod, Ph.D.
Scientist Emeritus of the
National Institutes of Health
1970 Nobel Laureate in Medicine

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